Contemporary Era HOF Ballot: No. 2, Curt Schilling and No. 1, Fred McGriff

OK, we’re at the end of our Contemporary Era Hall of Fame countdown! We’ve been counting down from 8 to 1 on the ballot based on my guess for each player’s chances of getting elected.

Albert Belle and Rafael Palmeiro were Nos. 8 and 7, respectively. I give them essentially no chance of being elected and do not know why either one was on the ballot.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were Nos. 6 and 5. I originally gave them each something like a three percent chance of election, but based on some scrutiny of the Contemporary Era Ballot committee makeup, I’ve downgraded that to zero chance.

Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy were Nos. 4 and 3. I think each has a shot, though not a particularly good one — I have Mattingly at 23% and Murph at 24%.

And today we wrap things up.

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Curt Schilling

Key achievements: Retired with the modern record for strikeout-to-walk ratio. One of the great big-game pitchers in baseball history — went 11-2 in the postseason with a 2.23 ERA. Sports Illustrated’s co-Sportsperson of the Year in 2001.

Where he ranks on my eligible Hall of Fame list: No. 4.

Who are the players around him on the list: Carlos Beltran, Scott Rolen, Lou Whitaker.

WAR (Hall of Fame Conversation usually begins around 60 WAR, though there are players in the Hall of Fame with less than 50 WAR):

• Baseball-Reference — 80.5

• FanGraphs — 79.8

Hall of Fame history: Appeared on 10 BBWAA ballots, topping out at 71.1%. in 2021. He finished 16 votes shy of induction that year. His percentage dropped in his final year on the ballot. This is his first appearance on a veterans ballot.

Chances he will be elected this time around: 59%

Fred McGriff

Key achievements: Hit 493 career home runs — twice led the league in homers. He’s top 50 all-time in RBIs (1,550), extra base hits (958) and just outside the top 50 in runs created and total bases.

Where he ranks on my eligible Hall of Fame list: No.24.

Who are the players around him on the list: Gary Sheffield, Keith Hernandez, Sammy Sosa, John Donaldson, Bobby Grich.

WAR (Hall of Fame Conversation usually begins around 60 WAR, though there are players in the Hall of Fame with less than 50 WAR):

• Baseball-Reference — 52.6

• FanGraphs — 56.9

Hall of Fame history: Appeared on 10 BBWAA ballots, topping out at 39.8%. in 2019, his final year on the ballot. This is his first appearance on a veterans ballot.

Chances he will be elected this time around: 83%

OK, so I have two theories about this ballot and this committee — one that a fair number of people seem to agree with and one that few people I know agree with.