Contemporary Era HOF Ballot: No. 4, Don Mattingly and No. 3, Dale Murphy

We’re counting down from 8 to 1 on the Contemporary Hall of Fame ballot this week — this countdown is based not on my opinion of each player’s greatness but instead on that player’s chances of getting elected on Sunday. For example, I think that Barry Bonds is the best player on this ballot.

But, as I wrote on Wednesday, I do not think Barry Bonds has a chance of being elected this year.

So who does have a chance? Ah, that’s what we’re talking about today and tomorrow.

A couple of quick reminders of special Black Friday deals we have going on, even though that was a few days ago. For the next two days, we still have our one-month free trial going! Sign up for an annual subscription to JoeBlogs and you get the first month free. That will include a lot of good stuff! And if you want to move on, just cancel your subscription before the 30 days are up and you will not be charged.

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If you give JoeBlogs as a gift or donate a subscription — ’tis the season! — you will get a very special gift on Christmas Day: a fun preview of my upcoming book, WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL. That book is a countdown of the 50 most magical moments in baseball history (actually a lot more than 50 but … you’ll see). I’ll give you a quick look at some of the moments before the book is even done!

Don Mattingly

Key achievements: Won the MVP award in 1985 and finished second in 1986. Led the league in doubles three straight years, from 1984 to ’86. Twice led the league in total bases over that stretch. Nine-time Gold Glove winner.

Where he ranks on my eligible Hall of Fame list: No. 51.

Who are the players around him on the list: Maury Wills, Willie Davis, Rick Reuschel, Sal Bando, Bernie Williams.

WAR (Hall of Fame Conversation usually begins around 60 WAR, though there are players in the Hall of Fame with less than 50 WAR):

• Baseball-Reference — 42.4

• FanGraphs — 40.7

Hall of Fame history: Appeared on 15 BBWAA ballots, topping out at 28.2% in his first year. Has twice been on veterans ballots, but he did not get enough votes to register either time.

Chances he will be elected this time around: 23%

Dale Murphy

Key achievements: Won back-to-back MVPs in 1982 and 1983. Five-time Gold Glove winner. Twice led the league in home runs, RBIs and slugging, and once led in runs.

Where he ranks on my eligible Hall of Fame list: No. 12.

Who are the players around him on the list: Dwight Evans, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Mark McGwire, Curt Flood, Pete Rose.

WAR (Hall of Fame Conversation usually begins around 60 WAR, though there are players in the Hall of Fame with less than 50 WAR):

• Baseball-Reference — 46.5

• FanGraphs — 44.3

Hall of Fame history: Appeared on 15 BBWAA ballots, topping out at 23.2%. Has twice been on veterans ballots, but did not get enough votes to register either time.

Chances he will be elected this time around: 24%

So, let me give you a super-early preview of this fairly massive project I’ve been working on that I hope to unveil in the new year: I’ve (slowly and methodically) been putting together the JoeBlogs Hall of Fame. It’s a fairly complicated, multi-layered Hall of Fame pyramid — if I’m being honest, I’m still working out some of the details. But I think it will be cool when it’s done. I guess maybe we’ll find out.

Anyway, here’s the thing about the JoeBlogs Hall of Fame: I want it to incorporate two things: