No. 12: Texas Rangers

OK, let’s look at the World Series champs since 2000 and how they did the next year (team missed the playoffs unless otherwise noted):

2000 Yankees: Lost in the World Series
2001 Diamondbacks: Won 98, swept in Division Series
2002 Angels: Finished 77-85
2003 Marlins: Finished 83-79
2004 Red Sox: Won 95, swept in Division Series
2005 White Sox: Finished 90-72
2006 Cardinals: Finished 78-84
2007 Red Sox: Won 95, lost ALCS in 7
2008 Phillies: Lost in the World Series
2009 Yankees: Won 95, lost ALCS in 6
2010 Giants: Finished 86-76
2011 Cardinals: Won 88, lost NLCS in 7
2012 Giants: Finished 76-86
2013 Red Sox: Finished 71-91
2014 Giants: Finished 84-74
2015 Royals: Finished 81-81
2016 Cubs: Won 92, lost NLCS in 5
2017 Astros: Won 103, lost ALCS in 5
2018 Red Sox: Finished 84-78
2019 Nationals: Finished last in COVID Season
2020 Dodgers: Won 106, lost NLCS in 6
2021 Braves: Won 101, lost NLDS in 4
2022 Astros: Won 90, lost ALCS in 7

So there you have it, 23 seasons, no repeat champions. This is by far the longest stretch in baseball history. We have not even had a champion get back to the World Series in 15 years. How does that compare with other eras?

• In the 1990s, the Yankees and Blue Jays each won back-to-back World Series.

• In the 1980s, there were no repeat winners—potential Mets, A’s and Tigers dynasties just did not quite develop.

• In the 1970s, the A’s won three in a row, the Reds won two in a row and then the Yankees won two in a row.

• In the 1960s, the Yankees won two in a row.

• In the 1950s, the Yankees won four in a row.

• In the 1940s, World War II changed the whole dynamic, the Yankees won four times but never consecutively.

• In the 1930s, the Yankees won four in a row. Also the Athletics won back-to-back in 1929-30.

• In the 1920s, the Yankees won two in a row and the Giants won two in a row.

There’s a reason I went through all that: Baseball used to have a certain order and rhythm. This was not necessarily a GOOD order or a FUN rhythm—mostly it just meant lamenting the fact that the Yankees won every year. But there was a continuous story. Good teams were good. Bad teams were bad. When one of the bad teams broke through, it was earth-shaking. When one of the good teams collapsed, it was also earth-shaking.

We have absolutely no idea, none whatsoever, how good the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers are going to be in 2024. PECOTA projects them to win 82. So does Baseball Reference*. Joe Sheehan projects them to win 85. Betting parlors—I LOVE calling them betting parlors, like this is 1920s London—put their over-under at 88.5 wins, but you probably know that such odds are not predictions but simply the line set where the bookmakers expect to get roughly equal betting on both sides.

And I imagine Rangers fans, giddy from last year’s triumph, think everybody is underestimating them yet again.

*We’ll have a lot more to say about Baseball Reference’s projection system when we write about the Yankees.

But, getting back to the point: We don’t know. We have no real idea how good this team is. Would it surprise you if they won 90-plus games and made another exciting playoff run? No. Would it surprise you if they won 75 games and were never in contention? No. Would it surprise you if I just decided for fun to give you the Rangers All-Star team from my childhood?

I can’t imagine that it would.