No. 4: Philadelphia Phillies and No. 3: Baltimore Orioles
OK, there are four teams left in my baseball preview. I wanted to try something different with them, because I expect to be writing about each of these teams a lot this year; an offbeat essay on each didn’t feel exactly right. What I want to do here is look at how these four teams got to the top (in my opinion) and what we can learn from their philosophy.
I think I can do that by comparing their philosophies.
So today, we’ll do two teams and tomorrow the other two. For each team, I’m going to list their players who are in my top 100 (and how the team acquired them), their records the last five years, and where they ranked in Baseball America’s Talent Rankings over those same five years.
No. 4: Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted record: 14 games behind the Braves
2023: 90-72 (lost in NLCS). Talent Ranking: 19th
2022: 87-75 (lost in World Series). Talent Ranking: 23rd
2021: 82-80. Talent ranking: 27th
2020: 28-32. Talent ranking: 26th
2019: 81-81. Talent ranking 12th
Top 100 players
Bryce Harper (13) — Free agent (13 years, $330 million)
Trea Turner (23) — Free agent (11 years, $300 million)
Zack Wheeler (34) — Free agent (5 years, $118 million—since extended)
Aaron Nola (46) — Seventh pick in 2014 draft
J.T. Realmuto (57) — Trade with Miami—since extended
Kyle Schwarber (69) — Free agent (4 years, $79 million)
Bryson Stott (99) — 14th pick in 2019 draft
The Phillies got here by spending a lot of money… but spending it pretty shrewdly. This is not an organization that has done well finding and developing its own players, as you can see by the annual talent rankings. The Phillies cashed in on their brief top-half minor league system in 2019 by dealing Sixto Sanchez to Miami for J.T. Realmuto. And they drafted regulars Stott and Alec Bohm high. But this is not a team that has counted on outscouting and outdeveloping other teams.
They have, particularly under the hungry eye of Dave Dombrowski, relied on their ability to convince stars to be a part of what they’re trying to do in Philadelphia. And, as the Knight said in “Last Crusade,” they have (for the most part) chosen wisely.
Over the weekend, I had a fascinating conversation with Bill James about something that, on the surface, seems super-obvious but is constantly forgotten: