OK, baseball season is rolling along, the Masters is in full swing, etc… so it’s time to bring back Brilliant Reader Questions! Remember, you can send questions here. Let’s get to it! BR Mike: Are the Astros actually bad? Corresponding question: Are the Royals actually good?
An English Football (Soccer) writer, Jonathan Wilson, raises an interesting point about Errors
“In Chad Harbach’s 2011 novel The Art of Fielding, the shortstop Henry Skrimshander is approaching the US college record for the most consecutive errorless baseball games when a throw inexplicably goes awry and hits a teammate in the dugout. At that, his confidence evaporates to the point that he can no longer execute the most basic skills; he gets the yips. What lingers from the novel, for me, is the crushing sense of pressure of having errors recorded like that, appearing even on the scoreboard, as though the sport had become less about the achievement of glory than about the avoidance of mistakes.
Avoiding mistakes is good. Some people should be judged on the avoidance of mistakes. Postal workers, bus drivers, indexers, especially surgeons and air-traffic controllers, should carry on not getting things wrong. But sport? Shouldn’t sport be about actively creating something?”
I always had what I called "The Dusty Baker Factor", which meant that if it could go wrong, it would, and there was nothing Dusty could have done about it, but it was going to happen.
Well, I hope Joe is right, and Typer O'Neill is on the brink of good year, but there's plenty of reason for pessimism. Over his career, he has averaged one K of every three AB's, and he just doesn't walk enough or have enough power to make up for all those outs. Also, although he's not old, he's certainly not young either. But I certainly hope he turns the clock back to 2021.
Luis Arráez is the guy you want. With men on base in 2023, he batted .413/.469/.563/1.032 in 375PA - 361 AB and drove in 63 hitting only three homers. On the season he hit 10 homers and drove in 63 playing for the impotent Marlins. Given more chances he could easily hit the 100 RBI mark with 10 or fewer homers.
Boston easily won the Tyler O'Neill trade. Maybe Victor Santos and Nick Robertson turn in dependable pieces, but O'Neill was a hard working player on both sides of the ball and will be again given a manager that treats him like a valued player. I don't know what got in Ollie Marmol's craw, but calling out a player worth 6-wins in 2021 for lack of hustle at a post-game news conference is bush league stuff. Why should players support him when he thinks so little of one of them?
I am SO stoked for Jackson vs Jackson this weekend! That’s all I need to say for tonight other than, even if the Orioles are my favorite AL East team (and they are, and it’s not close)… GO BREWERS!
I always think about small sample sizes at the beginning of a baseball season. Sometimes they are indicative of the future, but sometimes not.
Good teams have bad stretches (The 106 win Dodgers had a 4-14 stretch in 2021), Bad teams have good stretches. (The 50 win A's won 7 in a row last year, like the Royals have just done. The Royals themselves last year won 10 of 11 at one point - and went 46-105 the rest of the year))
Just last year the Pirates were 20-8 and the toast of April. They played at a 95 loss pace the rest of the year.
Those stretches were just blips on the radar, but right now, it is the only thing we have seen. It looms large.
As a Royals fan, I hope the Royals are actually better than I thought they were. But right now, through 13 games, no starting pitcher has given up more than 3 runs (while averaging 6 innings per start). The starters ERA is under 2, and their WHIP is under 1. I can't see that lasting. It should be in the dictionary under unsustainable. Heck, I am not sure how many times any starting staff has allowed 3 or less runs in 13 consecutive games. At least in the modern era. Bobby Witt Jr. is obviously a good player, but right now he is on pace to shatter the all time record for extra base hits, and I don't think that is likely to happen either. I hope, but I don't believe at this point.
The Astros I worry about. All dynasties come to an end, and sometimes that end is emphatic. (The Astros streak of ALCS appearances is longer the the Chiefs streak of AFC Championship appearances)
In reality, their likely rotation if everyone was healthy would feature Christian Javier and 4 guys that are injured, and despite the fun of Ronel Blanco's start, they just don't have the pitching depth to overcome that.
It would be fun if the Royals could keep this up, but something tells me that Melendez and Velazquez are not going to keep hitting .325 all year. The former hit .237/.331/.469, and the latter hit ~.250/.320/.450, both in over 400 minor league games. Witt might very well keep hitting .358. That kid is amazing, but Salvy Perez is definitely not going to keep hitting .333. The only catcher with a .330+ BA in an age-34 or higher season of at least 500 at bats is Jorge Posada, and he needed a crazy high .386 BABiP to do it.
I knew about Molitor, though I would have guessed there had been someone since then. In fact, few have even come close. The only players since 1996 with even 80 RBI without hitting ten dingers are:
Only two players have even had 90 RBIs, none with 95, and the last one with more than 85 was in 2007, which was so long ago that Joey Votto's 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐋𝐁 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐫 has transpired since then!
So basically, to get enough at-bats to rack up a decent number of RBIs without hitting 10 homers you have to be a franchise icon having a down power year, or a consistent, if not powerful hitter on a team that isn't built for power (Cabrera) or a guy having a career year on a terrible team (Freddy Sanchez). That was the year he won the NL batting title, hitting .344 for a Pirates team that lost 95 games.
So that's two potential paths for Steven "Stop Looking At Me!" Kwan to achieve it, though the Guardians still have several guys it makes more sense to hit in the RBI spots before him.
Hey Joe, one comment. The way the replies are organized causes them to be moved around in relation to the comment which the reply was directed to. So sometimes it looks as though the reply was directed to a different comment than it was. Don’t know if you could elevate this to sub stack and figure out a way to get around that problem.
On July 19, 1994 a ceiling tile fell to the stands in the old Seattle Kingdome, mercifully not during a game. The Mariners proposed playing the remainder of their home season at their nearby AAA park in Tacoma (Cheney Stadium). It was nixed by the MLBPA as the facility did not meet major league standards. Here's hoping they do the same for the A's since the news says they have not signed off on the Sacramento proposal. The happy/unhappy solution for the Mariners in 1994 was to play the balance of their home schedule in their opponents ball park. Happy for the other teams; miserable for Seattle fans. It ended after only 22 days due to the players' strike that shut down MLB.
I love that Joe mentioned Tom Herr because that’s who I also thought of immediately and could have regurgitated 8 HR, 110 RBI off the top of my head as well.
There are certain random numbers that have been in my head for 40 years—Ozzie Smith 0 HR, Silver Slugger ; Willie Wilson 21 3B; Wade Boggs 240 H; John Tudor 10 SHO; Kent Tekulve 90 G—and it’s really cool to know other people have the same numbers in their heads. Shared trivial baseball memories are the best.
Just an incredible Mookie stat
So far this years
6 HR
5 swing and misses at pitches in the zone
An English Football (Soccer) writer, Jonathan Wilson, raises an interesting point about Errors
“In Chad Harbach’s 2011 novel The Art of Fielding, the shortstop Henry Skrimshander is approaching the US college record for the most consecutive errorless baseball games when a throw inexplicably goes awry and hits a teammate in the dugout. At that, his confidence evaporates to the point that he can no longer execute the most basic skills; he gets the yips. What lingers from the novel, for me, is the crushing sense of pressure of having errors recorded like that, appearing even on the scoreboard, as though the sport had become less about the achievement of glory than about the avoidance of mistakes.
Avoiding mistakes is good. Some people should be judged on the avoidance of mistakes. Postal workers, bus drivers, indexers, especially surgeons and air-traffic controllers, should carry on not getting things wrong. But sport? Shouldn’t sport be about actively creating something?”
Are we sure Rightfield isn't the top baseball song?
I always had what I called "The Dusty Baker Factor", which meant that if it could go wrong, it would, and there was nothing Dusty could have done about it, but it was going to happen.
This is what I wrote about it in October 2020:
https://boyceofthepeople.wordpress.com/2020/10/14/the-dusty-baker-factor/
If the Athletics don't play in Las Vegas would Sacramento get a Big League team?
Well, I hope Joe is right, and Typer O'Neill is on the brink of good year, but there's plenty of reason for pessimism. Over his career, he has averaged one K of every three AB's, and he just doesn't walk enough or have enough power to make up for all those outs. Also, although he's not old, he's certainly not young either. But I certainly hope he turns the clock back to 2021.
I’m still holding out hope that the A’s somehow wind up in Portland - preferably with a new owner
Sadly the Portland Baseball Project is far too busy selling hats and t-shirts to pursue a team that appears to be up for grabs
Luis Arráez is the guy you want. With men on base in 2023, he batted .413/.469/.563/1.032 in 375PA - 361 AB and drove in 63 hitting only three homers. On the season he hit 10 homers and drove in 63 playing for the impotent Marlins. Given more chances he could easily hit the 100 RBI mark with 10 or fewer homers.
Boston easily won the Tyler O'Neill trade. Maybe Victor Santos and Nick Robertson turn in dependable pieces, but O'Neill was a hard working player on both sides of the ball and will be again given a manager that treats him like a valued player. I don't know what got in Ollie Marmol's craw, but calling out a player worth 6-wins in 2021 for lack of hustle at a post-game news conference is bush league stuff. Why should players support him when he thinks so little of one of them?
I am SO stoked for Jackson vs Jackson this weekend! That’s all I need to say for tonight other than, even if the Orioles are my favorite AL East team (and they are, and it’s not close)… GO BREWERS!
Good one, Perry!
I always think about small sample sizes at the beginning of a baseball season. Sometimes they are indicative of the future, but sometimes not.
Good teams have bad stretches (The 106 win Dodgers had a 4-14 stretch in 2021), Bad teams have good stretches. (The 50 win A's won 7 in a row last year, like the Royals have just done. The Royals themselves last year won 10 of 11 at one point - and went 46-105 the rest of the year))
Just last year the Pirates were 20-8 and the toast of April. They played at a 95 loss pace the rest of the year.
Those stretches were just blips on the radar, but right now, it is the only thing we have seen. It looms large.
As a Royals fan, I hope the Royals are actually better than I thought they were. But right now, through 13 games, no starting pitcher has given up more than 3 runs (while averaging 6 innings per start). The starters ERA is under 2, and their WHIP is under 1. I can't see that lasting. It should be in the dictionary under unsustainable. Heck, I am not sure how many times any starting staff has allowed 3 or less runs in 13 consecutive games. At least in the modern era. Bobby Witt Jr. is obviously a good player, but right now he is on pace to shatter the all time record for extra base hits, and I don't think that is likely to happen either. I hope, but I don't believe at this point.
The Astros I worry about. All dynasties come to an end, and sometimes that end is emphatic. (The Astros streak of ALCS appearances is longer the the Chiefs streak of AFC Championship appearances)
In reality, their likely rotation if everyone was healthy would feature Christian Javier and 4 guys that are injured, and despite the fun of Ronel Blanco's start, they just don't have the pitching depth to overcome that.
It would be fun if the Royals could keep this up, but something tells me that Melendez and Velazquez are not going to keep hitting .325 all year. The former hit .237/.331/.469, and the latter hit ~.250/.320/.450, both in over 400 minor league games. Witt might very well keep hitting .358. That kid is amazing, but Salvy Perez is definitely not going to keep hitting .333. The only catcher with a .330+ BA in an age-34 or higher season of at least 500 at bats is Jorge Posada, and he needed a crazy high .386 BABiP to do it.
I do hope that KC is competitive, though.
I knew about Molitor, though I would have guessed there had been someone since then. In fact, few have even come close. The only players since 1996 with even 80 RBI without hitting ten dingers are:
Mike Young, 9/94, 2007
Garret Anderson, 8/92, 1997
Joe Mauer, 8/85, 2008
Freddy Sanchez, 6/85, 2006
Orlando Cabrera, 8/86, 2007
Dustin Pedroia, 9/84, 2013
Xander Bogaerts 7/81, 2015
https://stathead.com/tiny/LKTkj
Only two players have even had 90 RBIs, none with 95, and the last one with more than 85 was in 2007, which was so long ago that Joey Votto's 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐋𝐁 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐫 has transpired since then!
So basically, to get enough at-bats to rack up a decent number of RBIs without hitting 10 homers you have to be a franchise icon having a down power year, or a consistent, if not powerful hitter on a team that isn't built for power (Cabrera) or a guy having a career year on a terrible team (Freddy Sanchez). That was the year he won the NL batting title, hitting .344 for a Pirates team that lost 95 games.
So that's two potential paths for Steven "Stop Looking At Me!" Kwan to achieve it, though the Guardians still have several guys it makes more sense to hit in the RBI spots before him.
Hey Joe, one comment. The way the replies are organized causes them to be moved around in relation to the comment which the reply was directed to. So sometimes it looks as though the reply was directed to a different comment than it was. Don’t know if you could elevate this to sub stack and figure out a way to get around that problem.
On July 19, 1994 a ceiling tile fell to the stands in the old Seattle Kingdome, mercifully not during a game. The Mariners proposed playing the remainder of their home season at their nearby AAA park in Tacoma (Cheney Stadium). It was nixed by the MLBPA as the facility did not meet major league standards. Here's hoping they do the same for the A's since the news says they have not signed off on the Sacramento proposal. The happy/unhappy solution for the Mariners in 1994 was to play the balance of their home schedule in their opponents ball park. Happy for the other teams; miserable for Seattle fans. It ended after only 22 days due to the players' strike that shut down MLB.
I love that Joe mentioned Tom Herr because that’s who I also thought of immediately and could have regurgitated 8 HR, 110 RBI off the top of my head as well.
There are certain random numbers that have been in my head for 40 years—Ozzie Smith 0 HR, Silver Slugger ; Willie Wilson 21 3B; Wade Boggs 240 H; John Tudor 10 SHO; Kent Tekulve 90 G—and it’s really cool to know other people have the same numbers in their heads. Shared trivial baseball memories are the best.