Lots of fun stuff today in Free Friday… Worst Strike Calls Since 2018 I’m going to introduce a new JoeBlogs feature called: “Fun Things You Can Do with Statcast!”* *If anyone plans on making this into a T-shirt, please remember to include the exclamation point at the end… like Yahoo!
Brilliant Reader Skinny Pete is incorrect, I'm afraid.
In 1935, Wally Berger hit 35 HR for the Boston Braves, who only won 38 games. That is the closest anyone has ever come to hitting the team's number of wins (at least since 1900).
The other 3 times someone has come within 10 HR of their team's win total that I've been able to find are:
Help is on the way. I was watching a AAA game on MiLB and the catcher challenged a human ump’s ball call, and the robo ump overruled it. It took about three seconds; no huddling of umpires or calls to headquarters.
I’ve always wondered when the score is 15-1 and it’s starting to rain, if umpires tend to call strikes when they’re not. Also, in Don Larsen’s final pitch in his perfect game, looks like batter Dale Mitchell’s half swing didn’t break the plane and the pitch seemed low. Ump wanted the no-no?
Watching the draft, I was able to nail quite a few of the picks by knowing the need and noting the available player who stood out at that position. It made it seem like the process of teams was a lot less impressive and sophisticated than I normally assume. And it is far from obvious that drafting for need, even to a small degree, is a smart thing to do, given the injury rate in football, and how fast players consequently fall off their game. Paying attention to talent is the one thing you can do as an executive, and the one thing you can control, I would argue. Your needs in one year's time will likely be completely different.
Whether Trout ends up on a high HR, low RBI list for his numbers at the end of this year is anybody's guess. The ratio right now is partly a product of his HR rate being so exceptional. (In general, the better your HR rate, the lower your ratio. Think about the RBI difference between someone who hits a given number of HR in a career, and someone who hits the same number in a season. The person who hits the HR over a career will have far more RBI.) But since you also turned up his 2022, when he had 40 HR and 80 RBI, I wondered if his career clutch hitting (or his hitting in RBI situations) has been subpar. The answer is no; he's a career .305 hitter with RISP, .300 overall.
What really leapt out at me is he's a .440 hitter in his career with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. That's in 182 AB. But I've recently learned about the trick that the free out from sacrifice flies inflates these statistics. The old thing about batting average going up with the bases loaded because pitchers have to come in to hitters turned out to be an old saw, caused by this statistical artifact. Granted, .440 is robust, but it comes all the way down to .338 if you take Trout's sacrifice flies out. Even if you just take them from his RISP at-bats, which of course includes cases where he hit with 2 outs or without a runner on 3rd, his batting average plummets to .290.
I am intrigued by the Tommy Tomlinson book. Oh, that I will have the time to read it! You had me at "lots of slobber." I will say that, for a book of just 256 pages, that is the longest Amazon summary I have ever read! So much is promised to be covered, it sounds like it will be three times that long.
Joe, congratulations on your mock draft results. The most interesting news of the week was this. I believe it was either the night following your call for Ohtani to reach 60 doubles for the season or possibly the day after, he went out and hit three doubles in a game for the first time in his career.
Next week, how about most egregious strikes that were called balls? I think it was a pitcher on the Reds who threw a ball right down the pipe to the Phillies' most discerning hitter Nick Castellanos that was called a ball. Not even us Phillies fans could get behind that call.
When it comes to bad calls, is it just me or do we only complain about pitches that were incorrectly called strikes? We should give equal complaining to pitches that are incorrectly called balls. It might also be interesting to see if there's a tendency to error more on one side than the other.
I also have to wonder if there might be an unspoken "agreement" between umpires, catchers, and batters. "OK, I muffed that one. I'll make up for it on the next borderline pitch...."
One thing that struck me on many of those horrible calls was how terrific the catcher was at setting up and framing the pitch, I mean, some of them are like having Ricky Jay behind the plate. And by the way, when did "pitch framing" become a thing and is it a good thing or bad thing when the robot umpires make it a lost art?
The HR/RBI thing reminds me of the hockey version of the Cy Young Award, an informal nod to those who have high goal/low assist totals. This is pretty hard to do in hockey since you can have two assists per goal.
Conveniently, I researched this for a story I wrote and so can quote you some of the greatest examples since the two-assist rule was created in 1946:
Danny Gare, 1975-76: 50 goals, 23 assists
Reggie Leach, same season: 61 goals, 30 assists. Getting to 60 goals and fewer than 100 total points is hard, but not quite impossible…
Lanny McDonald, 1982-83: 66 goals, 32 assists. I am almost positive this is the most goals with under 100 points ever.
Steven Stamkos, 2011-12: 60 goals, 37 assists
Alex Ovechkin, 2015-16: 50 goals, 21 assists - the fewest points in a 50-goal year, and he’d go 48-19 four years later, just missing.
My list left off the 70+ goal seasons because there’s so few of them that “fewest assists” is hardly competitive. (For the record it’s Brett Hull at the 70 AND 80 goal levels, even including the WHA.)
I like Delgado—underrate for sure—but I’m fine with him not being considered a strong HOF candidate. He didn’t have Papi’s vibes nor his huge postseason moments nor his longevity, so saying his peak stats are comparable to Papi’s is kinda a moot point.
He just wasn’t in the elite of the elite (save a truly magnificent 2000 season) even in his prime. As a 1B/DH of mid 90s—mid 00s, I’d take Big Hurt, Big Mac, Bagwell, Edgar, Helton, Thome, and probably Olerud, Giambi, and Palmeiro over him.
As, like, the 8th best guy of your generation at your position, probably don’t have a compelling HOF case.
Are we not going to talk about umpires now have names like, “Jordan.”
If you watch number 9 closely, you see the count go from 0-1 to 1-1 after the pitch. Not called a strike.
Brilliant Reader Skinny Pete is incorrect, I'm afraid.
In 1935, Wally Berger hit 35 HR for the Boston Braves, who only won 38 games. That is the closest anyone has ever come to hitting the team's number of wins (at least since 1900).
The other 3 times someone has come within 10 HR of their team's win total that I've been able to find are:
- Sosa in 1999 (63/67)
- Ralph Kiner in 1952 (37/42)
- (The original) Frank Thomas in 1962 (34/40)
Help is on the way. I was watching a AAA game on MiLB and the catcher challenged a human ump’s ball call, and the robo ump overruled it. It took about three seconds; no huddling of umpires or calls to headquarters.
I’ve always wondered when the score is 15-1 and it’s starting to rain, if umpires tend to call strikes when they’re not. Also, in Don Larsen’s final pitch in his perfect game, looks like batter Dale Mitchell’s half swing didn’t break the plane and the pitch seemed low. Ump wanted the no-no?
A post where you link to 10 videos is not that great.
Elly de la Cruz is tied for 18th in MLB in steals.
Among teams.
We need to talk about how fun this is.
Watching the draft, I was able to nail quite a few of the picks by knowing the need and noting the available player who stood out at that position. It made it seem like the process of teams was a lot less impressive and sophisticated than I normally assume. And it is far from obvious that drafting for need, even to a small degree, is a smart thing to do, given the injury rate in football, and how fast players consequently fall off their game. Paying attention to talent is the one thing you can do as an executive, and the one thing you can control, I would argue. Your needs in one year's time will likely be completely different.
Whether Trout ends up on a high HR, low RBI list for his numbers at the end of this year is anybody's guess. The ratio right now is partly a product of his HR rate being so exceptional. (In general, the better your HR rate, the lower your ratio. Think about the RBI difference between someone who hits a given number of HR in a career, and someone who hits the same number in a season. The person who hits the HR over a career will have far more RBI.) But since you also turned up his 2022, when he had 40 HR and 80 RBI, I wondered if his career clutch hitting (or his hitting in RBI situations) has been subpar. The answer is no; he's a career .305 hitter with RISP, .300 overall.
What really leapt out at me is he's a .440 hitter in his career with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. That's in 182 AB. But I've recently learned about the trick that the free out from sacrifice flies inflates these statistics. The old thing about batting average going up with the bases loaded because pitchers have to come in to hitters turned out to be an old saw, caused by this statistical artifact. Granted, .440 is robust, but it comes all the way down to .338 if you take Trout's sacrifice flies out. Even if you just take them from his RISP at-bats, which of course includes cases where he hit with 2 outs or without a runner on 3rd, his batting average plummets to .290.
I am intrigued by the Tommy Tomlinson book. Oh, that I will have the time to read it! You had me at "lots of slobber." I will say that, for a book of just 256 pages, that is the longest Amazon summary I have ever read! So much is promised to be covered, it sounds like it will be three times that long.
Joe, congratulations on your mock draft results. The most interesting news of the week was this. I believe it was either the night following your call for Ohtani to reach 60 doubles for the season or possibly the day after, he went out and hit three doubles in a game for the first time in his career.
Next week, how about most egregious strikes that were called balls? I think it was a pitcher on the Reds who threw a ball right down the pipe to the Phillies' most discerning hitter Nick Castellanos that was called a ball. Not even us Phillies fans could get behind that call.
Too bad we can't look at the strike zone from the 1995 World Series.
The Shohei Update
(I didn't look anything up so this is the Shohei Update of the Mind)
The team he used to be on is doing about the same without him as they did with him in 2023.
The team he now is on is doing about the same with him as they did without him in 2023.
When it comes to bad calls, is it just me or do we only complain about pitches that were incorrectly called strikes? We should give equal complaining to pitches that are incorrectly called balls. It might also be interesting to see if there's a tendency to error more on one side than the other.
I also have to wonder if there might be an unspoken "agreement" between umpires, catchers, and batters. "OK, I muffed that one. I'll make up for it on the next borderline pitch...."
One thing that struck me on many of those horrible calls was how terrific the catcher was at setting up and framing the pitch, I mean, some of them are like having Ricky Jay behind the plate. And by the way, when did "pitch framing" become a thing and is it a good thing or bad thing when the robot umpires make it a lost art?
The HR/RBI thing reminds me of the hockey version of the Cy Young Award, an informal nod to those who have high goal/low assist totals. This is pretty hard to do in hockey since you can have two assists per goal.
Conveniently, I researched this for a story I wrote and so can quote you some of the greatest examples since the two-assist rule was created in 1946:
Danny Gare, 1975-76: 50 goals, 23 assists
Reggie Leach, same season: 61 goals, 30 assists. Getting to 60 goals and fewer than 100 total points is hard, but not quite impossible…
Lanny McDonald, 1982-83: 66 goals, 32 assists. I am almost positive this is the most goals with under 100 points ever.
Steven Stamkos, 2011-12: 60 goals, 37 assists
Alex Ovechkin, 2015-16: 50 goals, 21 assists - the fewest points in a 50-goal year, and he’d go 48-19 four years later, just missing.
My list left off the 70+ goal seasons because there’s so few of them that “fewest assists” is hardly competitive. (For the record it’s Brett Hull at the 70 AND 80 goal levels, even including the WHA.)
I like Delgado—underrate for sure—but I’m fine with him not being considered a strong HOF candidate. He didn’t have Papi’s vibes nor his huge postseason moments nor his longevity, so saying his peak stats are comparable to Papi’s is kinda a moot point.
He just wasn’t in the elite of the elite (save a truly magnificent 2000 season) even in his prime. As a 1B/DH of mid 90s—mid 00s, I’d take Big Hurt, Big Mac, Bagwell, Edgar, Helton, Thome, and probably Olerud, Giambi, and Palmeiro over him.
As, like, the 8th best guy of your generation at your position, probably don’t have a compelling HOF case.