Hi from Ottawa, Kansas! Spent the morning here at the Conference for Baseball in Literature and Culture, which is great fun. Lots of great baseball talk. Steve Lyons told some fun stories. Good time had by all; put it on your schedule for next year if you like just geeking out on baseball.
Easy solution on the problem for byes. Team with the best record has the option to switch with any of the four teams playing. Once they switch, team with second best record has the same option. If having a bye is a disadvantage, they can avoid the bye.
Everything you said about the Royals situation was spot on. In addition, this team has 6 years left on its lease and the stadium, had it been built, would have been finished 2 seasons early. I think people did not feel any threats by the teams were binding in any way given that time frame.
There's an elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about, because it derives from baseball selling its soul to the networks. That is that certain teams play all their playoff games in prime time (you know who you are) and certain teams get to play afternoon baseball in October light, which is literally different conditions than they ever play. Joe's point about the poor suffering Dodger fans having to go home early was not, to my knowledge, brought up when the 116-win Mariners of 2001 had to play their first series against Cleveland, which they pulled off after losing games 1 and 3, at 3:30 in the afternoon. While the Yankees and the A's played evening games. Had the M's lost that series, I'm pretty sure not a soul would be arguing about how they should change those schedules.
I just watched Dawn Staley prove that she had spent the past year, even as she had to retool her entire team, she had worked out a plan to defense Caitlin Clark and it worked to perfection even after Clark scored 18 points in the first quarter. Dave Roberts and the Dodger brain trust might have done something similar. We don't need to retool the playoffs because they didn't.
Here's the thing about Byes that people are missing.
Under the current, 6-team-per-league playoff format, the two best records in each League have a 100% chance of making the League Division Series (final 8 teams). Which means there is currently a 100% chance that *both* of a League's two top teams will make the LDS. In a scenario where there are 8 teams per league and everyone plays in a two-of-three Wild Card Series, the top two seeds would have no better than a 70% chance each of advancing even as far as the LDS. In fact, there'd likely be a greater than 50% chance that one of the top two seeds *does not* make the LDS and about one-in-ten chance *neither* makes it that far.
Byes are a HUGE advantage. There should be more advantages for the best teams, not fewer.
Byes - because two things happen at the same time doesn't mean one caused the other. Maybe some teams managed it better than others or didn't play well when it most counted. Or...who knows? No need for a drastic, knee jerk reaction.
The issue isn't bye or no bye. It's that the more marginal teams you put in the playoffs and the more games you make everyone play, the more likely it is that there's some stupid upset.
I understand wanting to juice playoff revenue and prolong fan base interest in the season. I get that.
But it's also the case that this decision often does not make for a World Series that people want to see.
No one was going into October last year hoping to see a 90-win Wild Card team play an 84-win Wild Card team for the right to call themselves baseball's best. It feels silly.
So, a little more about the Royals stadium thing (for anyone who cares) from someone who lives here.
When they launched the campaign, along with a couple of very generic, not well done at all, renderings, in November of 2022.
The "Concrete Cancer" as they called it, was something they did with an in house hired company, the independent study actually found that they would have to move (without significant investment in the stadium) sometime in the next 30-40 years. Notable was the fact that Arrowhead - in the same parking lot, built at the same time, by the same company, with the same concrete, did not show this alleged cancer and the Chiefs did not feel like they had to move. This began a campaign filled to the brim with lies and half truths. Also, a big part of the original proposal was them building, with private funds, a "world class" entertainment district around the ballpark. I immediately said that was a carrot that would disappear, and indeed it did.
Then they came up with 14 possible sites, promising to narrow it down quickly,and have it on last year's April ballot. (Which they moved to November, then this year) They announced, without details, narrowing it down to 5 at the beginning of 2023, in the midst of an off season where they did nothing, assuring that the team would be worse than the previous 97 loss team. (which it was , as they lost 106 games in 2023). Then they added a 6th site in an adjacent county, I guess to put pressure on county officials. In August of last year, they narrowed that down to 2, including the one in the adjacent county., and promised to have a site by September. Which they did not.
There was a push in January and February this year to get it on the ballot in Jackson County before the deadline. The county executive (former Royal Frank White) vetoed it citing the lack of any details or actual agreements with the county and the lack of preparedness and transparency from the Royals. The veto was overridden just before the deadline. Since only one of the sites was there, most thought that meant they had chosen a site. Not so fast my friends! After it got on the ballot, even after early voting had started, the Royals made a final selection to a completely different site, one that would involve displacing many businesses and a church and taking over a road that is heavily trafficked. The only entertainment district was a hotel and apartments, piggy backing on existing entertainment and a pedestrian bridge over a highway (which was already approved before the stadium, with other funds)
They had no details about the rest of the money. No detailed contract with the County. They want the money up front with the county recouping the money over the 40 year period. They had no community bargaining agreement, and still did not when the vote went to ballot. They had the Chiefs (who are interested in having the entire existing site) come up with what they would do with their improvement money, and the Chiefs responded with a rendering in which 90% focused on new amenities for a small portion of the highest priced season ticket holders that would have zero benefits for most fans. Much of their expensive advertising didn't even mention the new stadium, relying on fear tactics about both teams moving. (Not a shock from a Republican campaign manager)
Sherman bumbled his way through this entire process. It was large scale incompetence, and almost as if he wanted to lose. The county has two election boards, one for KC proper, and one for the other parts of Jackson County (suburbs and rural) The vote lost 58% to 42% (rounded) in both areas, so it is not as if they have to placate a certain section of fans. They failed across the board, and they deserved to.
I think missing from the bye week conversation is that the 2022 Astros won the World Series from a bye position. Then they came one win short of winning the pennant out of the bye again last year. So it’s hard for me to look at the Braves and Dodgers and not think “well, the Astros figured it out, why can’t you?”
And, of course, the Braves themselves won 88 of 162 games and then a World Series just three years ago. The 2022 and 2023 champions both won more games than that. So, I’m not sure Atlanta is in any position to complain about “undeserving” wild card teams winning it all. How short our memories can be, sometimes
I think we're approaching critical mass. Yes, two years is a small sample size, but if. 5 of 8 series are won by the lower seeded team despite the higher seeds having home field advantage and perhaps better records as well, then the bye is not desirable. The obvious fix is to go immediately to 16 teams so there are no byes. However, that's my critical mass number. At 16 entrants it tips over from a playoff matching league winners to a tournament. Call it October Madness or Fall Ball (because Octoberfest and Festivus are already taken). It's no longer about finding out who is the best team, it's about finding the team that gets hot at the right time (and/or catches the right breaks at the right time).
To bye, or not to bye? I'm not sure that it makes a whole heck of a lot of difference, particularly given the prospect of MLB bloating the playoffs even further to 16 clubs. Baseball was unique in its approach to the postseason for so many years, even when the first wild card teams were introduced in 1995. But with the NFL, NHL and NBA as guides, it seems overly idealistic to expect the baseball teams with the best records to consistently survive to the World Series given the number of clubs that now qualify for the playoffs. How often have the two best teams in the three other major sports survived over the last 20-30 years? As more teams enter the postseason, failure for the best to survive seems like an inevitable consequence.
I'd read a little about the Ohtani baseball thing, but that story didn't mention the part about street value $100K. Does anyone on these boards familiar with that market think that's about right? I mean, yes, it's Ohtani, but the notability factor for the ball is a little low in my opinion, considering all the homers he's already hit in California and the 35 or so he's bound to hit this year. And I know from messing around with baseball cards that team affiliation doesn't really affect value for that type of memorabilia. If somebody here had some insight I'd find it interesting.
Through April 5th, all five NL Central teams are .500 or better. In the rest of the NL, only Atlanta, LA, and Arizona are .500 or better. Strange but true!
Easy solution on the problem for byes. Team with the best record has the option to switch with any of the four teams playing. Once they switch, team with second best record has the same option. If having a bye is a disadvantage, they can avoid the bye.
What about instead of a bye that team just starts the series with a win?
Everything you said about the Royals situation was spot on. In addition, this team has 6 years left on its lease and the stadium, had it been built, would have been finished 2 seasons early. I think people did not feel any threats by the teams were binding in any way given that time frame.
There's an elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about, because it derives from baseball selling its soul to the networks. That is that certain teams play all their playoff games in prime time (you know who you are) and certain teams get to play afternoon baseball in October light, which is literally different conditions than they ever play. Joe's point about the poor suffering Dodger fans having to go home early was not, to my knowledge, brought up when the 116-win Mariners of 2001 had to play their first series against Cleveland, which they pulled off after losing games 1 and 3, at 3:30 in the afternoon. While the Yankees and the A's played evening games. Had the M's lost that series, I'm pretty sure not a soul would be arguing about how they should change those schedules.
I just watched Dawn Staley prove that she had spent the past year, even as she had to retool her entire team, she had worked out a plan to defense Caitlin Clark and it worked to perfection even after Clark scored 18 points in the first quarter. Dave Roberts and the Dodger brain trust might have done something similar. We don't need to retool the playoffs because they didn't.
Here's the thing about Byes that people are missing.
Under the current, 6-team-per-league playoff format, the two best records in each League have a 100% chance of making the League Division Series (final 8 teams). Which means there is currently a 100% chance that *both* of a League's two top teams will make the LDS. In a scenario where there are 8 teams per league and everyone plays in a two-of-three Wild Card Series, the top two seeds would have no better than a 70% chance each of advancing even as far as the LDS. In fact, there'd likely be a greater than 50% chance that one of the top two seeds *does not* make the LDS and about one-in-ten chance *neither* makes it that far.
Byes are a HUGE advantage. There should be more advantages for the best teams, not fewer.
"No word on if the Royals then hired Boeing to handle quality control"
Absolutely Brilliant
"No word on if the Royals then hired Boeing to handle quality control"
Absolutely Brilliant
"No word on if the Royals then hired Boeing to handle quality control"
Absolutely Brilliant
Byes - because two things happen at the same time doesn't mean one caused the other. Maybe some teams managed it better than others or didn't play well when it most counted. Or...who knows? No need for a drastic, knee jerk reaction.
The issue isn't bye or no bye. It's that the more marginal teams you put in the playoffs and the more games you make everyone play, the more likely it is that there's some stupid upset.
I understand wanting to juice playoff revenue and prolong fan base interest in the season. I get that.
But it's also the case that this decision often does not make for a World Series that people want to see.
No one was going into October last year hoping to see a 90-win Wild Card team play an 84-win Wild Card team for the right to call themselves baseball's best. It feels silly.
So, a little more about the Royals stadium thing (for anyone who cares) from someone who lives here.
When they launched the campaign, along with a couple of very generic, not well done at all, renderings, in November of 2022.
The "Concrete Cancer" as they called it, was something they did with an in house hired company, the independent study actually found that they would have to move (without significant investment in the stadium) sometime in the next 30-40 years. Notable was the fact that Arrowhead - in the same parking lot, built at the same time, by the same company, with the same concrete, did not show this alleged cancer and the Chiefs did not feel like they had to move. This began a campaign filled to the brim with lies and half truths. Also, a big part of the original proposal was them building, with private funds, a "world class" entertainment district around the ballpark. I immediately said that was a carrot that would disappear, and indeed it did.
Then they came up with 14 possible sites, promising to narrow it down quickly,and have it on last year's April ballot. (Which they moved to November, then this year) They announced, without details, narrowing it down to 5 at the beginning of 2023, in the midst of an off season where they did nothing, assuring that the team would be worse than the previous 97 loss team. (which it was , as they lost 106 games in 2023). Then they added a 6th site in an adjacent county, I guess to put pressure on county officials. In August of last year, they narrowed that down to 2, including the one in the adjacent county., and promised to have a site by September. Which they did not.
There was a push in January and February this year to get it on the ballot in Jackson County before the deadline. The county executive (former Royal Frank White) vetoed it citing the lack of any details or actual agreements with the county and the lack of preparedness and transparency from the Royals. The veto was overridden just before the deadline. Since only one of the sites was there, most thought that meant they had chosen a site. Not so fast my friends! After it got on the ballot, even after early voting had started, the Royals made a final selection to a completely different site, one that would involve displacing many businesses and a church and taking over a road that is heavily trafficked. The only entertainment district was a hotel and apartments, piggy backing on existing entertainment and a pedestrian bridge over a highway (which was already approved before the stadium, with other funds)
They had no details about the rest of the money. No detailed contract with the County. They want the money up front with the county recouping the money over the 40 year period. They had no community bargaining agreement, and still did not when the vote went to ballot. They had the Chiefs (who are interested in having the entire existing site) come up with what they would do with their improvement money, and the Chiefs responded with a rendering in which 90% focused on new amenities for a small portion of the highest priced season ticket holders that would have zero benefits for most fans. Much of their expensive advertising didn't even mention the new stadium, relying on fear tactics about both teams moving. (Not a shock from a Republican campaign manager)
Sherman bumbled his way through this entire process. It was large scale incompetence, and almost as if he wanted to lose. The county has two election boards, one for KC proper, and one for the other parts of Jackson County (suburbs and rural) The vote lost 58% to 42% (rounded) in both areas, so it is not as if they have to placate a certain section of fans. They failed across the board, and they deserved to.
I think missing from the bye week conversation is that the 2022 Astros won the World Series from a bye position. Then they came one win short of winning the pennant out of the bye again last year. So it’s hard for me to look at the Braves and Dodgers and not think “well, the Astros figured it out, why can’t you?”
And, of course, the Braves themselves won 88 of 162 games and then a World Series just three years ago. The 2022 and 2023 champions both won more games than that. So, I’m not sure Atlanta is in any position to complain about “undeserving” wild card teams winning it all. How short our memories can be, sometimes
I think we're approaching critical mass. Yes, two years is a small sample size, but if. 5 of 8 series are won by the lower seeded team despite the higher seeds having home field advantage and perhaps better records as well, then the bye is not desirable. The obvious fix is to go immediately to 16 teams so there are no byes. However, that's my critical mass number. At 16 entrants it tips over from a playoff matching league winners to a tournament. Call it October Madness or Fall Ball (because Octoberfest and Festivus are already taken). It's no longer about finding out who is the best team, it's about finding the team that gets hot at the right time (and/or catches the right breaks at the right time).
To bye, or not to bye? I'm not sure that it makes a whole heck of a lot of difference, particularly given the prospect of MLB bloating the playoffs even further to 16 clubs. Baseball was unique in its approach to the postseason for so many years, even when the first wild card teams were introduced in 1995. But with the NFL, NHL and NBA as guides, it seems overly idealistic to expect the baseball teams with the best records to consistently survive to the World Series given the number of clubs that now qualify for the playoffs. How often have the two best teams in the three other major sports survived over the last 20-30 years? As more teams enter the postseason, failure for the best to survive seems like an inevitable consequence.
I'd read a little about the Ohtani baseball thing, but that story didn't mention the part about street value $100K. Does anyone on these boards familiar with that market think that's about right? I mean, yes, it's Ohtani, but the notability factor for the ball is a little low in my opinion, considering all the homers he's already hit in California and the 35 or so he's bound to hit this year. And I know from messing around with baseball cards that team affiliation doesn't really affect value for that type of memorabilia. If somebody here had some insight I'd find it interesting.
Through April 5th, all five NL Central teams are .500 or better. In the rest of the NL, only Atlanta, LA, and Arizona are .500 or better. Strange but true!