it wasn't RBI that was the main metric then, it was being on a pennant winner. Between 1931, when the Baseball Writers started giving the award, and 1968, the last year before divisional play, 72.3% of MVPs were on pennant winners. 11.8% on 2nd place teams, 7.9% on third place teams. 3.9% each on 4th and 5th place teams (All three 5th place guys were NL Cubs, 2 of them Ernie Banks)
Williams wasn't the first guy to lose winning a Triple Crown either. In 1934, Lou Gehrig, by all accounts a popular player among the writers, won the triple crown, also led the league in slugging and OBP, (and had 10 WAR, though they didn't know about that then. It is damned hard to get 10 WAR at first base) finished 5th. 3 of the players ahead him were on the pennant winning Tigers, including winner Mickey Cochrane (who was probably the least of the 3) The other player ahead of him was a pitcher on his own team, Lefty Gomez, who went 26-5 with a 2.33 ERA in a league environment of 4.50.
Khazad, at one point, and it might have been before 1931, in fact as I am typing it probably was, weren't you ineligible to win the MVP again after you had one once? I seem to recall that being true.
It was in the AL only in the 20s only. Before I found this out, I was aghast that Ruth didn't get any votes in 1927. There were various MVP awards in the early years. The Baseball Writers have been the award since 1931.
And it wasn't called the MVP award. from 1922-1928 (American League) and 1924-1930 (National League) It was the League Award. The no repeat rule was dropped in 1928, perhaps because of the Babe's 1927 season. Ruth was ineligible for the award in his famous 1927 season by the rules of the American League award because he had previously won in 1923. Rogers Hornsby was the only two time winner, getting the award in 1925 and 1930. Another oddity was that player-managers were not eligible.
Put fandom and numbers aside and ask one simple question: heading into the playoffs, who would you rather have on your team: Judge or Witt? Ohtani or Lindor? Or someone else entirely? Without thinking a lot for other candidates, it's easy - Judge & Ohtani.
Subjective? Of course, just like cherry picking numbers.
The Ohtani-vs-Lindor debate and the Judge-vs-Witt Jr. debate are both wonderful. I'm on the Ohtani/Witt Jr. side. Judge doesn't do in the outfield what Witt does at short, but on the other hand, Ohtani's offense is INSANE this year. And further, I keep harping on this: somebody has to be the DH! Oh, I know a manager doesn't *have* to have a DH, but c'mon, we all know how the game is played. Though I am a huge Lindor fan (in fact, the moment I sat down at the one game I went to at Citi this year, he homered, and he made a ton of great plays at short - Manaea pitched a gem that day too)(I live in Minneapolis), I feel the Ohtani season deserves the kind of recognition that only an MVP award merits.
And it comes back to the PosCast thought, with a twist: There should be an NL MVP, and AL MVP, and an award for Shohei acknowledging what a unicorn of greatness he is... but not this year! This year, he just gets some kind of Edgar/Ortiz MVP for hitting the damn cover off the ball. And that's my two cents. Now, on to figuring out where to buy the damn football book...
Not exactly sure where to go change the default credit card for my subscription. I was recently hacked and have a new card number. Or I can wait until it tries to auto renew and give it a new card number then, lol.
One thing I think gets overlooked in the Miguel Cabrera year by the WAR argument is that Cabrera willingly moved to a position he was not going to be good at defensively for the good of putting the best lineup possible out there on the team that year. You take a WAR hit for doing things like that. You should not take an MVP hit for it. Just a thought that the harder we lean into WAR (even knowing how certain versions of it get defense potentially wrong) the more we miss the nuance of these types of things AND we devalue them. As Joe looks to point out we should not argue to diminish a player (this argument should not diminish how absurd Trout was that year) but to find ways to celebrate them.
While I think WAR should be looked at, you kind of have to pay attention to the "Wow factor" and winning the triple crown is definitely a wow factor.
WAR and the MVP don't necessarily have to mean the same thing. I don't think people play as much attention to defense in MVP voting, and certainly not to positional adjustments, which are definitely a part of WAR. You shouldn't have to.
There are voters who will just make a WAR list. There are those who will not. There are voters who will include outstanding pitchers, there are voters who won't include any pitchers, or slide the best ones into the back half, because they feel they already have their own award, and other differences. (Some won't vote guys from the same team high, or put demerits on guys on teams that have two legitimate candidates, because guy #3 is clearly the best player on his team. Some who want to vote for a guy on the best team, some who want a guy that may have lifted a team that wouldn't be in the playoffs without him into the playoffs, etc) That's OK. It just gives us more to talk about. But I don't want to get to a place where all you have to do is look at WAR and you know who the MVP is going to be.
As far as Trout and Cabrera in 2012, offensively Cabrera created 60 runs more than the average player, Trout 54.
Obviously Trout is going to have a higher WAR though. When you throw park effects into that Cabrera goes down to 58, and Trout rises to 59.5. Trout was a great fielder (+19 DRS, mostly in CF, Cabrere was below average (-4) at less premium position. When you factor all those things into it of course Trout blew Cabrera away in WAR. (10.5 to 7.1), But for the many looking at offensive output mostly, it seemed pretty close, with Cabrera having the edge, and a triple crown to boot.
In response to Joe‘s column yesterday about how the Browns were stuck with Desean, I thought about making the point that they could drum up some new allegations to try to get out of the contract. And then say they are shocked, shocked! to find out that he has been doing these things. But I couldn’t really find a way to explain it in a way that didn’t seem insensitive regarding the prior allegations. And look now …
Congrats on getting to do an event at the Smithsonian! When I was in high school my dad got my sister an I signed up for a teen research project in connection with a special exhibit at the National Museum of Asian Art (then known as the Sackler Museum). It was an interesting experience that I probably didn’t fully appreciate when I was 16. I passed by the Ripley Center all the time back then so it’s nice to know that you’ll be doing a talk there. Too bad I don’t live in the area anymore.
While I completely support the WAR concept, I think that Aaron Judge is not quite getting a fair break. He was always a good right fielder, but he gets a negative defense rating when he’s playing center field for the good of the team. In any case Bobby Witt is totally amazing. Dan
I also feel like his defensive value should not be a negative. He never misses anything he *should* catch. His range is not great but his height and arm makes up for it. It’s hard for me to believe that with his cannon, HR robberies, and sure glove that his range is really that bad that it would negatively impact his WAR. Just doesn’t pass the smell test to me. He had one game a couple weeks ago where he robbed two HRs. That makes up for a lot of singles he lets drop in front of him if you ask me.
100% - Judge playing CF allows the Yankees to put the best possible lineup out there even though it hurts Judge's WAR. Those types of considerations are what make MVP discussions fun.
My favorite Ted Williams fun fact: He won two triple crowns and hit .400 and didn’t win the MVP in any of those three seasons. Although only the latter triple crown year, mentioned by Joe, was egregiously bad.
Joe DiMaggio vs. Ted Williams is one of those sports rivalries where the fan favorite, while still truly great, is also the clearly inferior player of the two. But a lot of people pretend like that’s not really the case because they’re the fan favorite. A few other examples: Federer (or Nadal) vs. Djokovic, Griffey vs. Bonds (in ‘90s only).
I'll be honest - when I first heard the new assault allegation, my first thought the Haslems had arranged it to get them out of the remaining guarantees on the Watson contract. I don't know if that is even possible or not, but it shows my level of respect for both player and franchise at this point.
Witt!
What did I miss with David Ortiz? Has he been making the MVP case for Lindor/against Ohtani? Seems like a strange person to do so, if that’s the case.
Royals fan here. I am not convinced that Witt is a superior base runner. He makes a LOT of aggressive outs on the basepaths.
it wasn't RBI that was the main metric then, it was being on a pennant winner. Between 1931, when the Baseball Writers started giving the award, and 1968, the last year before divisional play, 72.3% of MVPs were on pennant winners. 11.8% on 2nd place teams, 7.9% on third place teams. 3.9% each on 4th and 5th place teams (All three 5th place guys were NL Cubs, 2 of them Ernie Banks)
Williams wasn't the first guy to lose winning a Triple Crown either. In 1934, Lou Gehrig, by all accounts a popular player among the writers, won the triple crown, also led the league in slugging and OBP, (and had 10 WAR, though they didn't know about that then. It is damned hard to get 10 WAR at first base) finished 5th. 3 of the players ahead him were on the pennant winning Tigers, including winner Mickey Cochrane (who was probably the least of the 3) The other player ahead of him was a pitcher on his own team, Lefty Gomez, who went 26-5 with a 2.33 ERA in a league environment of 4.50.
Khazad, at one point, and it might have been before 1931, in fact as I am typing it probably was, weren't you ineligible to win the MVP again after you had one once? I seem to recall that being true.
It was in the AL only in the 20s only. Before I found this out, I was aghast that Ruth didn't get any votes in 1927. There were various MVP awards in the early years. The Baseball Writers have been the award since 1931.
And it wasn't called the MVP award. from 1922-1928 (American League) and 1924-1930 (National League) It was the League Award. The no repeat rule was dropped in 1928, perhaps because of the Babe's 1927 season. Ruth was ineligible for the award in his famous 1927 season by the rules of the American League award because he had previously won in 1923. Rogers Hornsby was the only two time winner, getting the award in 1925 and 1930. Another oddity was that player-managers were not eligible.
Well, Gehrig has two and Ruth only has one, so if it wasn't a rule, it was certainly part of the mentality, it seems.
Funny to think Ohtani, of all players, might lose out on an MVP award due to being too one-dimensional.
Put fandom and numbers aside and ask one simple question: heading into the playoffs, who would you rather have on your team: Judge or Witt? Ohtani or Lindor? Or someone else entirely? Without thinking a lot for other candidates, it's easy - Judge & Ohtani.
Subjective? Of course, just like cherry picking numbers.
The Ohtani-vs-Lindor debate and the Judge-vs-Witt Jr. debate are both wonderful. I'm on the Ohtani/Witt Jr. side. Judge doesn't do in the outfield what Witt does at short, but on the other hand, Ohtani's offense is INSANE this year. And further, I keep harping on this: somebody has to be the DH! Oh, I know a manager doesn't *have* to have a DH, but c'mon, we all know how the game is played. Though I am a huge Lindor fan (in fact, the moment I sat down at the one game I went to at Citi this year, he homered, and he made a ton of great plays at short - Manaea pitched a gem that day too)(I live in Minneapolis), I feel the Ohtani season deserves the kind of recognition that only an MVP award merits.
And it comes back to the PosCast thought, with a twist: There should be an NL MVP, and AL MVP, and an award for Shohei acknowledging what a unicorn of greatness he is... but not this year! This year, he just gets some kind of Edgar/Ortiz MVP for hitting the damn cover off the ball. And that's my two cents. Now, on to figuring out where to buy the damn football book...
Judge's offense is even more "insane" than Ohtani's and by a fair amount.
Not exactly sure where to go change the default credit card for my subscription. I was recently hacked and have a new card number. Or I can wait until it tries to auto renew and give it a new card number then, lol.
I had to change mine recently. I either googled it and got link to clear instructions at substack. Was very easy to change.
One thing I think gets overlooked in the Miguel Cabrera year by the WAR argument is that Cabrera willingly moved to a position he was not going to be good at defensively for the good of putting the best lineup possible out there on the team that year. You take a WAR hit for doing things like that. You should not take an MVP hit for it. Just a thought that the harder we lean into WAR (even knowing how certain versions of it get defense potentially wrong) the more we miss the nuance of these types of things AND we devalue them. As Joe looks to point out we should not argue to diminish a player (this argument should not diminish how absurd Trout was that year) but to find ways to celebrate them.
While I think WAR should be looked at, you kind of have to pay attention to the "Wow factor" and winning the triple crown is definitely a wow factor.
WAR and the MVP don't necessarily have to mean the same thing. I don't think people play as much attention to defense in MVP voting, and certainly not to positional adjustments, which are definitely a part of WAR. You shouldn't have to.
There are voters who will just make a WAR list. There are those who will not. There are voters who will include outstanding pitchers, there are voters who won't include any pitchers, or slide the best ones into the back half, because they feel they already have their own award, and other differences. (Some won't vote guys from the same team high, or put demerits on guys on teams that have two legitimate candidates, because guy #3 is clearly the best player on his team. Some who want to vote for a guy on the best team, some who want a guy that may have lifted a team that wouldn't be in the playoffs without him into the playoffs, etc) That's OK. It just gives us more to talk about. But I don't want to get to a place where all you have to do is look at WAR and you know who the MVP is going to be.
As far as Trout and Cabrera in 2012, offensively Cabrera created 60 runs more than the average player, Trout 54.
Obviously Trout is going to have a higher WAR though. When you throw park effects into that Cabrera goes down to 58, and Trout rises to 59.5. Trout was a great fielder (+19 DRS, mostly in CF, Cabrere was below average (-4) at less premium position. When you factor all those things into it of course Trout blew Cabrera away in WAR. (10.5 to 7.1), But for the many looking at offensive output mostly, it seemed pretty close, with Cabrera having the edge, and a triple crown to boot.
Very good comment.
In response to Joe‘s column yesterday about how the Browns were stuck with Desean, I thought about making the point that they could drum up some new allegations to try to get out of the contract. And then say they are shocked, shocked! to find out that he has been doing these things. But I couldn’t really find a way to explain it in a way that didn’t seem insensitive regarding the prior allegations. And look now …
Glad to see a little baseball here. It was beginning to seem like all football all the time.
Just wait until the Why We Love Basketball promotion starts. Then you’ll be begging for football stuff.
Wow! The Smithsonian. Enough said. Enjoy and share photos please. See you at Quail Ridge Books in October, Joe.
Congrats on getting to do an event at the Smithsonian! When I was in high school my dad got my sister an I signed up for a teen research project in connection with a special exhibit at the National Museum of Asian Art (then known as the Sackler Museum). It was an interesting experience that I probably didn’t fully appreciate when I was 16. I passed by the Ripley Center all the time back then so it’s nice to know that you’ll be doing a talk there. Too bad I don’t live in the area anymore.
While I completely support the WAR concept, I think that Aaron Judge is not quite getting a fair break. He was always a good right fielder, but he gets a negative defense rating when he’s playing center field for the good of the team. In any case Bobby Witt is totally amazing. Dan
I also feel like his defensive value should not be a negative. He never misses anything he *should* catch. His range is not great but his height and arm makes up for it. It’s hard for me to believe that with his cannon, HR robberies, and sure glove that his range is really that bad that it would negatively impact his WAR. Just doesn’t pass the smell test to me. He had one game a couple weeks ago where he robbed two HRs. That makes up for a lot of singles he lets drop in front of him if you ask me.
100% - Judge playing CF allows the Yankees to put the best possible lineup out there even though it hurts Judge's WAR. Those types of considerations are what make MVP discussions fun.
My favorite Ted Williams fun fact: He won two triple crowns and hit .400 and didn’t win the MVP in any of those three seasons. Although only the latter triple crown year, mentioned by Joe, was egregiously bad.
Joe DiMaggio vs. Ted Williams is one of those sports rivalries where the fan favorite, while still truly great, is also the clearly inferior player of the two. But a lot of people pretend like that’s not really the case because they’re the fan favorite. A few other examples: Federer (or Nadal) vs. Djokovic, Griffey vs. Bonds (in ‘90s only).
I'll be honest - when I first heard the new assault allegation, my first thought the Haslems had arranged it to get them out of the remaining guarantees on the Watson contract. I don't know if that is even possible or not, but it shows my level of respect for both player and franchise at this point.